R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Preview

WHAT: R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

WHEN: December 22, 2012 (11:00 a.m.)

WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, LA)

WHO: Louisiana 8-4 (Sun Belt) vs. East Carolina 8-4 (CUSA)

 

Here's the deal, this will be a great game!  Louisiana (2-0 Bowl Record) is making is second straight appearance in the New Orleans Bowl, while East Carolina (8-9 Bowl Record) is making their 17th bowl appearance after missing out last season.  The game will have a huge crowd, as both teams are expected to bring thousands to the Superdome, especially the Cajuns.  With identical records, both teams lost their two games against teams from AQ conferences and beat an FCS opponent.  They then went through their conference schedule and finished near the top of the rankings.  These teams will both try to run the ball, but also look for the quick strike scores in the passing game.  So, how do these teams stack up against each other?

Louisiana is led by Terrance Broadway, who stepped in for senior Blaine Gautier when he was injured early in the season.  Broadway has put up some of the top passing numbers in Louisiana history and also is a big-time threat in the rushing game.  The other rushing threat is Alonzo Harris who is the "big" back for Louisiana, but also is paced by the "little guys"; Effrem Reed and Torrey Pierce.  In their eight victories, Louisiana has rushed the ball an average of 42.88 times.  However, in their four losses, they only rushed the ball an average of 24.25 times.  The East Carolina defense has given up an average of 234.75 yards per game in their four losses (144.33 not including the Navy 512 yard gam).  The key in this game for the Louisiana offense is to control the line and run, run, run.  If Louisiana rushes for more than 120 yards, they easily walk away with the victory.

• PASSING
• Terrance Broadway (SO); 185-283 for 2,526 yards and 16 TD
• RUSHING
• Alonzo Harris (SO); 149 - 761 yds - 8 TD
• Terrance Broadway (SO); 104 - 658 yds - 8 TD
• Effrem Reed (FR); 84 - 411 yds - 5 TD
• Torrey Pierce (FR); 47 - 253 yds - 3 TD
• RECEIVING
• Harry Peoples (SR); 61 - 744 yds - 5 TD
• Darryl Surgent (JR); 33 - 559 yds - 3 TD
• Javone Lawson (SR); 36 - 540 yds - 4 TD
• Jamal Robinson (SO); 20 - 514 yds - 3 TD
• TACKLES
• Justin Anderson (JR); 82 tackles

While Louisiana has many weapons, East Carolina is led by the "Big 3".  At the quarterback position for is Shane Carden who has put up some very nice passing numbers by targeting inside receiver Justin Hardy.  However, the East Carolina offense is paced by Vintavious Cooper, who has put up some really nice rushing stats.  The East Carolina stats are much like those of Louisiana.  In their eight winds, East Carolina ran the ball an average of 38.75 times.  While in their losses, East Carolina ran the ball an average of 29.75 times.  Running the ball often will keep the Louisiana offense off the field, plus East Carolina is 6-3 in games they win time of possession.  If East Carolina wins time of possession and keeps the potent Louisiana offense on the sidelines, they walk away with the win.

• PASSING
• Shane Carden (SO); 248-371 for 2,838 yards and 21 TD
• RUSHING
• Vintavious Cooper (JR); 191 - 1,059 yds - 7 TD
• RECEIVING
• Justin Hardy (SO); 83 - 1,046 yds - 10 TD 
• TACKLES
• Damon Magazu (JR); 72 tackles
• Jeremy Grove (SO); 71 tackles

How about the other numbers that nobody thinks about?  One interesting stat to look at is plays per game.  In the four losses for Louisiana, the defense was on the field for an average of 79.25 plays per game (85.67 if the Florida game is not included).  In their eight wins, the Louisiana defense was on the field for an average of 69.63 plays per game (65 if the Troy 102 play game is not included).  That is a huge difference in the amount of time the defense spends on the field in regards to wins and losses.

Now, let's look at the world famous 3rd down conversion stat.  For Louisiana, in wins they lead this stat by a slim margin of 39% - 37.5%.  However, in losses there is a huge difference of 31% - 47.76%.  For East Carolina, in the difference is even bigger.  In wins they lead 53.57% - 34.45% and in losses they trail 32.07% - 53.06%.  It's pretty clear that whichever team wins this category will win this game.  If Louisiana converts on at least 35% of their 3rd down conversions, the get the win.  However, if East Carolina converts on at least 45% of their conversions, the walk away with the win.

So, let's say that both teams reach they 3rd down conversion goals.  What happens then?  Obviously, then it comes down to special teams.  Louisiana has the advantage in this department, but East Carolina is not that far behind.  Louisiana has the most accurate kicker in NCAA history in senior Brett Baer [17-20 (85%), 52 long], who also handles the punting duties.  East Carolina's kicker is sophmore Warren Harvey [13-18 (72.2%), 54 long].  Everyone in Louisiana knows about "The Kick" to win last years New Orleans bowl.  If this game lives up to expectations, it may take another one to decide who get the victory.  No matter the winner, this years early kickoff has all the makings of one great after party.  I'll see you in NOLA!